23 October 2017
Bullish oil bets favour Brent over US WTI contract
‘ “The effect of the curtailment in crude deliveries out of northern Iraq registered more strongly on the Brent side[last week],” said analysts at JBC Energy in Vienna.’
02 October 2017
– Crude oil has not enough fuel to go higher from here
– The OPEC/non-OPEC cuts are expected to be prolonged till the end of 2018
– Product markets are normalising with Middle Distillates showing strength
– While demand growth for 2017 comes in at around 1.6mb/d we see 2018 closer to 1.3mb/d
02 August 2017
OPEC wants oil above $50, but US shale producers won’t play along
‘ “We see Brent prices sustained at or slightly above $50 per barrel over the next few months,” said […] JBC Energy. “However, this hinges on compliance not only in terms of reported production figures but also in terms of actual arrivals at consumer hubs…otherwise the credibility of the deal and outright oil prices will suffer.” ‘
31 July 2017
Diesel prices in Europe rise after Rotterdam refinery blaze
‘JBC Energy in Vienna said refinery outages and maintenance were also already running at a higher level over June and July, up by about 850,000 b/d compared with the same period last year.
“The call on refining in the Atlantic Basin is the highest since 2015 and at the moment every outage can have a disproportionate effect on the market,” JBC said.’
20 July 2017
Brent breaks $50-a-barrel for first time in 6 weeks
‘ “It thus seems that the Saudi plan to make a visible dent in US stocks is working out for the time being”, said analysts at JBC Energy, a Vienna based energy consultancy. “But the market remains rightfully focused on medium-term supply aspects where ongoing increases in US rig counts and production remain a fact” ’
16 June 2017
Crude oil glut frustrates Opec’s price control moves
‘More tankers have also appeared off Singapore, a key hub for storing oil at sea during times of oversupply, as well as off producing countries in west Africa, which analysts at JBC Energy said was “a strong warning signal…during what should be peak refinery demand season.” ’
25 May 2017
– Markets will not rebalance before end of 2019. OPEC will have to roll on with their cuts until the end of next year and beyond.
– Forecasts of $60 or $70 a barrel are too optimistic
– Response of the US Shale producers is a key factor in establishing prices. If prices go up then the supply response remains a risk for OPEC
– On the topic of compliance: if the Russian government is committed to the cuts then Russian oil companies will comply. It is less likely that Kazakhstan will be interested in complying.
20 May 2017
– Beyond September 2018 outlook: we have a bearish outlook – significant oversupply in the market
– OPEC must act also in 2018. If it doesn’t then we will see an oversupply of 1.8 million barrels. Need OPEC to cut back to end of the year and beyond for markets to rebalance.
– If prices rise then this will trigger an investment in shale, meaning OPEC will have to increase cuts.
– Supply: there is a lot of supply even if OPEC compliance remains high. Shale Oil is the main addition to supply. However there are other factors such as Brazil and West Africa coming online.
– At $50 most big producers can still make a good return
– Saudi Arabia: our view is that it has an interest in prices being around $40-60. If prices are too low then then they will lose money, but if prices go too high it becomes harder for the deputy crown price to maintain his plan for economic reform which seeks to shift the economy away from an dependence on oil.
05 May 2017
Oil’s tumble tests hard-fought recovery at energy groups
‘ “After recent disappointments market participants are likely to require more than a few soothing comments,” say analysts at JBC Energy. “In other words, hard facts in terms of more meaningful stockdraws would be needed” ‘
01 May 2017
– Trump’s order to review offshore drilling rights aims initially to update seismic data from areas in the Atlantic, Pacific and Arctic waters.
– It may lead further down the road to selling drilling rights in those offshore areas.
– Oil companies are currently spending money to expand onshore shale developments with little appetite for leases in the Arctic.
– The presidential order underlines Trump’s pro business approach.
– The market is currently facing US production increases from shale and offshore GoM.
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Light ends in the transportation sector: recent developments and outlook
In the Past
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