20 July 2017
Brent breaks $50-a-barrel for first time in 6 weeks
‘ “It thus seems that the Saudi plan to make a visible dent in US stocks is working out for the time being”, said analysts at JBC Energy, a Vienna based energy consultancy. “But the market remains rightfully focused on medium-term supply aspects where ongoing increases in US rig counts and production remain a fact” ’
16 June 2017
Crude oil glut frustrates Opec’s price control moves
‘More tankers have also appeared off Singapore, a key hub for storing oil at sea during times of oversupply, as well as off producing countries in west Africa, which analysts at JBC Energy said was “a strong warning signal…during what should be peak refinery demand season.” ’
25 May 2017
– Markets will not rebalance before end of 2019. OPEC will have to roll on with their cuts until the end of next year and beyond.
– Forecasts of $60 or $70 a barrel are too optimistic
– Response of the US Shale producers is a key factor in establishing prices. If prices go up then the supply response remains a risk for OPEC
– On the topic of compliance: if the Russian government is committed to the cuts then Russian oil companies will comply. It is less likely that Kazakhstan will be interested in complying.
20 May 2017
– Beyond September 2018 outlook: we have a bearish outlook – significant oversupply in the market
– OPEC must act also in 2018. If it doesn’t then we will see an oversupply of 1.8 million barrels. Need OPEC to cut back to end of the year and beyond for markets to rebalance.
– If prices rise then this will trigger an investment in shale, meaning OPEC will have to increase cuts.
– Supply: there is a lot of supply even if OPEC compliance remains high. Shale Oil is the main addition to supply. However there are other factors such as Brazil and West Africa coming online.
– At $50 most big producers can still make a good return
– Saudi Arabia: our view is that it has an interest in prices being around $40-60. If prices are too low then then they will lose money, but if prices go too high it becomes harder for the deputy crown price to maintain his plan for economic reform which seeks to shift the economy away from an dependence on oil.
05 May 2017
Oil’s tumble tests hard-fought recovery at energy groups
‘ “After recent disappointments market participants are likely to require more than a few soothing comments,” say analysts at JBC Energy. “In other words, hard facts in terms of more meaningful stockdraws would be needed” ‘
01 May 2017
– Trump’s order to review offshore drilling rights aims initially to update seismic data from areas in the Atlantic, Pacific and Arctic waters.
– It may lead further down the road to selling drilling rights in those offshore areas.
– Oil companies are currently spending money to expand onshore shale developments with little appetite for leases in the Arctic.
– The presidential order underlines Trump’s pro business approach.
– The market is currently facing US production increases from shale and offshore GoM.
27 April 2017
– Oil price floundering due too high expectations on OPEC cuts in the H1 2017, drawdown of floating storage, supply coming from WAF, Caspian & US nevertheless we expect prices to rise back to $55 per barrel May/June due to seasonal demand, possibly higher with cuts from OPEC/non-Opec.
– OPEC compliance remains high but now the question shifts to whether or not the cuts will be rolled over. From discussions with market participants a second round of cuts is largely expected and probably priced into the market to some extent. Although our view is that this may not necessarily provide OPEC the best result longer term.
– Failure to agree a roll over may feed the bears to some extent, although fundamentals should provide support.
– If the current cuts were rolled over into H2, we could see crude stock draws of some 1.2 million b/d in H2. This is likely to push oil higher.
– Price increases may seem like good news for OPEC but in reality higher prices are likely to stimulate more supply (especially from the US) which will cause more problems as we enter 2018 and more management of the market will be required.
– US supply is reacting strongly to relatively healthy prices of 2017. Rig counts have increased dramatically and we expect supply to start to growing again.
– Trump’s impact on the oil market remains marginal in our opinion.
05 April 2017
Oil Prices flirt with 1-month peak as US inventories rise – production curbs seen to be helping reduce excess stockpiles and supporting crude
‘Although the easing of stockpiles has not been as swift as anticipated, some analysts say industry data now suggest Opec’s output curbs are beginning to tighten the oil market.
Stockpiles will fall even if the supply deal is not renewed when Opec next meets in May, say analysts at JBC Energy.
“Even in the event of Opec/non-Opec not extending the cuts into [the second half of this year], the world would still continue to draw stocks at a mild pace of about 200,000 b/d until September, thereby lending support to prices one way or another, ” they said.’
16 February 2017
Frenzied Betting, Sleeping Market: Something Must Give in Oil
‘Unfortunately for the bulls the oil market itself has fallen asleep after an initial surge[…] “If crude prices are to break out of their recent range in the next few weeks, the risk is to the downside,” JBC Energy said Thursday.
‘While the market remains in contango, it is costly for traders to hold on to oil contracts from one month to the next, diminishing the profits of those speculatively betting on rallies. JBC sees no global reduction so far in inventories, although it’s still just six weeks since OPEC and its allies started to implement their cuts’
01 February 2017
Oil Market waits for Opec-shale tug of war to end
‘ “The first half of 2017 was always going to be difficult”, said[…] JBC Energy in Vienna.
“Opec can tighten the market, but we’ve always doubted they would be permanently able to shift the market balance. The US shale industry has been a game changer because it can respond to price signals in less than a year” ’
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JBC Energy Matters Seminar
JBC Energy Matters Seminar – Market Views from Vienna
21-22 September 2017
The inaugural “JBC Energy Matters” Seminar will be held in Vienna, Austria, on 21-22 September 2017.
Hosted by JBC Energy experts, the 2-day Seminar will offer in-depth presentations and workshops on all major areas of our oil & gas markets and industry research.
What to expect & Why to attend:
– Face-to-face interaction with our analysts to get the inside story.
– Intense discussions on oil & gas market fundamentals and pricing, drilling deep down into JBC Energy’s exclusive research.
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– To explore the full complexity of the oil & gas market as well as JBC Energy’s in house Supply, Demand and Pricing (SuDeP) Model.
– No media! The closed-door, seminar-style of the event guarantees sufficient time for Q&A as well as open and interactive discussions among all participants.
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In the Past
29 June, 2017 - Singapore
Bunkering and Storage Asia Conference
Analysis of the implications of IMO specification change on bunker and storage companies
11 May, 2017 - London
10th Global Crude Oil Summit
IMO Spec change and its ramifications on the oil sector
– What will IMO spec changes and other environmental regulations do for crude price differentials?
06 April, 2017 - Vienna
23rd Annual BBSPA Conference
Oil Market Developments:
– Current Supply developments in light of the OPEC/non-OPEC production cut
– US Shale revival
– Oversupply to continue? JBC Energy’s view on balances
29 March, 2017 - Rotterdam
2020 refining developments with focus on IMO regulations and implications for storage
16 February, 2017 - Mumbai
Refining & Petrochemicals World Expo
01 - 02 February, 2017 - Antwerp
7th Annual Middle Distillates Conference
24 - 25 January, 2017 - Amsterdam
10th Annual European Oil Storage Conference
22 - 24 January, 2017 - Manama, Bahrain
1st Annual Middle East Refining Technology Conference
05 - 07 December, 2016 - New Delhi, India
12th International Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition
29 November, 2016 - Vienna
20th Annual CIS Downstream Summit
World Refining Association