Modelling

JBC Energy’s in-house Supply, Demand and Price (SuDeP) model forms the foundation of our forecasts. Developed by our team of analysts, the database covers key aspects of the global oil market and offers a structured breakdown of demand, supply, balances, trade flows, prices and margins for crude, NGLs, biofuels, other liquids and oil products. We apply a ‘bottom-up’ approach to form our demand projections, taking into account input factors such as population growth and structure, GDP development and oil intensity, transportation trends, government policy and strategy, competition/substitution of other energy sources. Oil supply projections are based on three components: crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and other liquids (heavy oil, CTL, GTL and biofuels). The SuDeP model also provides in-depth information and projections on processing capacity. This includes refinery outages (planned and unplanned) as well as planned expansions to CDU as well as secondary capacity. Data can be extracted from the model by region, by product and by sector or as supply/demand balance breakdowns.

We offer this data to clients on a standardised module basis as well as in packages customised to individual client needs.

Please click through to find out more about the standard modules, or contact us for more in-depth information. If you would like to discuss access to this service please contact us at research@jbcenergy.com

Monthly Basic Compilation

Coverage of the core aspects of the oil market: monthly OPEC crude supply estimates. Quarterly and annual updates on total liquids supply/demand assessments plus balances for the seven key global regions for coming 12 months. Monthly benchmark price forecasts (crude, products & natural gas) for next 12 months as well as any applicable SuDeP forecast revisions.

MonthlyBasicCompilation

Global Basic Compilation

Comprehensive supply, demand and balance figures offered on a country-by-country basis (database of 100+ countries). Regional statistics for refinery capacity, total liquids supply and products balances. Detailed demand data by region, by product and by sector (Transportation, residential, commercial and public services, agriculture, power generation, petrochemical feedstock requirements, bunker fuel). Data released on an annual basis with a 10 year time horizon. Optional country add-on: statistics for country (or countries) from database pool for sectoral/product demand, oil statistics and balances.

GlobalBasicCompilation

Long-term Price Forecasts

Price projections for regional crude benchmarks as well as key spot market grades, products and natural gas. Data released on an annual basis with a 10 year time horizon.

LongtermPriceForecasts

Refining Capacity

Comprehensive data for current refining capacity (distillation, reforming, conversion, desulphurisation, crude runs, other feedstock, refinery utilisation) as well as expansions. Data can be extracted at a global level or by region or country (100+) and is released on an annual basis with a 10 year time horizon.

RefiningCapacity

Trade Flows

Regional coverage of product (LPG, naphtha, gasoline, jet/kero, gas oil/diesel, fuel oil) and crude flows. Data compilation shows last year’s trade flows as well as current, one and three year projections. Released on an annual basis.

TradeFlows

Natural Gas

Detailed coverage of natural gas balances including import and export data on either a global, regional or country (100+) level. LNG liquefication and regasification capacity figures. Data released on an annual basis with a 10 year time horizon.

NaturalGas

Tailor Made Services & SuDeP Workshops

This unit offers data breakdown on more specialised topics: road transportation fuel demand, oil output on a field-by-field (major producing fields) basis as well as, global, regional and country analysis of condensate and NGL balances, and crude quality (API gravity, sulphur content). Time horizons and data release vary depending on data focus. Further to this, clients can opt to receive a bi-yearly Mid-term Outlook analysing key market-driving factors in the coming 5 years. JBC Energy also offers clients the opportunity to experience SuDeP firsthand. This package offers three individual workshops: firstly, JBC Energy provides an overview of the SuDeP methodology and content. Part two caters to the individual wishes of the client, while part three is arranged following consultation on both sides. All three modules of the workshop are held by a senior consultant in the convenience of your office.