Modelling And Forecasting

JBC Energy’s proprietary in-house supply, demand, and pricing (SuDeP) model forms the foundation of our forecasting services. Developed by our expert team of analysts, the SuDeP model is a globally integrated data model that provides projections for supply, demand, balances, trade flows, prices, and margins. Our model also includes detailed forecasts on primary crude distillation and secondary unit processing capacity as well as refinery maintenance, and refinery outages. SuDeP data encompasses crude oil, petroleum products, NGLs, biofuels, and LNG. Clients can access our data by subscribing to standardised data packages or can opt to customise deliveries to their individual business needs.

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Monthly Base Package

This modelling package provides coverage of the core aspects of the oil market and includes:

  • Monthly OPEC crude supply estimates
  • Monthly benchmark price forecasts for the next 12 months as well as any applicable SuDeP forecast revisions for crude, products & natural gas
  • Quarterly updates on total liquids supply/demand assessments
  • Annual updates on total liquids supply/demand assessments
  • Balances for the seven key global regions for the coming 12 months

Data Set: Monthly, quarterly, and annual

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Global Package

This modelling package provides comprehensive supply, demand, and balance figures on a country-by-country basis (database of 100+ countries). It includes:

  • Regional statistics for refinery capacity, total liquids supply and products balances
  • Detailed demand data by region, by product, and by sector (Transportation, residential, commercial and public services, agriculture, power generation, petrochemical feedstock requirements, bunker fuel).

Data Set: Annual with a 10 year time horizon.

Optional country add-on: Statistics for country (or countries) from database pool for sectoral/product demand, oil statistics and balances.

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Long-term Price Forecasts

This modelling package provides price projections for regional crude benchmarks, key spot market grades, products, and natural gas.

Data set: Annual with a 10 year time horizon.

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Refining Capacity

This modelling package provides comprehensive data for current refining capacity (distillation, reforming, conversion, desulphurisation, crude runs, other feedstock, and refinery utilisation) as well as expansions.

Data can be extracted at the global level or by region or country (100+).

Data set: Annual with a 10 year time horizon.

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Trade Flows

This package provides regional coverage of product (including LPG, naphtha, gasoline, jet/kero, gas oil/diesel, fuel oil) and crude flows.

The data compilation will show last year’s trade flows as well as current, one year, and three year out projections.

Data set: Annual.

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LNG/Natural Gas

This package provides detailed coverage of natural gas balances including:

  • Import and export data on either a global, regional or country (100+) level
  • LNG liquefaction capacity figures
  • LNG regasification capacity figures

Data set: Annual with a 10 year time horizon.

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Longer term Views, Tailor Made Services and SuDeP Workshops

This package offers a data-intensive deep dive on more specialised topics including:

  • Road transportation fuel demand
  • Longer time series data
  • Oil output on a field-by-field (major producing fields) basis
  • Global, regional and country analysis of condensate and NGL balances, and crude quality (API gravity, sulphur content)
  • Residue analysis
  • Crude valuation analysis
  • Scenario and sensitivity analysis

Data set: varies depending on data focus.

Further to this, clients can subscribe to our biannual Mid-term Outlook analysing the key market drivers shaping our outlook over the next 15 years.

Data set: Annual with a 15 year time horizon. Includes a price outlook for crude and products in all key regions, as well as balances on a regional and product basis over the entire forecast period.

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SuDeP Workshops

JBC Energy also offers you the opportunity to experience our SuDeP model first hand. This package offers three individual workshops taught by at least one of our senior consultants in the comfort of your office and allows the flexibility to choose the topics that best suit your business needs.

Part one: provides an overview of the SuDeP methodology and content.
Part two: caters to the individual wishes of the client.
Part three: is arranged following consultation on both sides.