The LNGI/Natural Gas Insights report features JBC Energy's monthly natural gas and LNG fundamental analysis. Each month, our analysts tackle the latest key developments in natural gas and LNG markets, providing analysis and forecasts on supply, demand, and pricing.
We also take a deep dive into recent trade developments with insights on both seaborne LNG flows as well as pipeline deliveries. Our analysts are also tracking the latest pricing trends in the market, analysing what these mean for sellers, buyers, and intermediaries.
US LNG exports in March recovered from the dip seen in February and will be supported in Q2 on European restocking requirements.
Europe expected to see stronger-than-usual restocking demand this spring with inventories potentially finishing the heating season at 25% of capacity. With Russian pipeline imports and domestic gas production is likely to be limited, more demand is expected for LNG.
We do not expect the recent spike in Asian LNG hub prices to repeat next winter as buyers will likely learn from their mistakes. Authorities are also addressing the shipping bottlenecks at the Panama Canal by improving the transit reservation system for vessels. New ships that are expected to enter the market in the coming months will further ease any logistical constraints, especially during peak demand.
We see a global gas market recovery in 2021 with prices expected to grow by over 50% on an annual average basis from 2020 levels. We also forecast a narrowing in the global gas surplus as demand growth is set to outstrip supply increases. The US's LNG exports will continue to grow y-o-y but the country will still act as a swing producer.
The View - Gas is our monthly price forecasting service for natural gas, LNG and NGLs.
The report contains our rolling 12-month price forecasts for all key dry and liquid gas benchmarks with supporting analysis for all regions. Comes with:
- Its own price Excel data set; which customers can integrate into their own models or outlooks.
- Forecasts for Henry Hub futures, European Gas hub, Asian LNG hub (JKM) as well as Asian Brent Oil Indexed LNG and European Russian contract prices.
- Additional forecasts for US Ethane, and Propane and Butane in US, Europe, the Middle East (Contract Price) and Asia.
- Price outlooks for Brent crude oil and for Naphtha.
Counter seasonal strength in the Asian and European gas markets over the last month have resulted in upward revisions to our price forecast for both hubs. However, our outlook on Henry Hub has darkened on high inventories, rising supply and greater competition from renewables and coal.
Natural gas hub prices are expected to move sideways during the spring, with the spread between the Asian and European benchmarks remaining narrow which will incentivise more flows to the West. We also now see oil-indexed prices moving higher than spot prices throughout summer following the recent strength in Brent crude.
We have lowered our immediate forecast for the Asian LNG hub price after a sharp correction in the benchmark over the last month as warmer weather resulted in lower heating demand. We also now see oil indexed prices in Asia above hub prices in early 2021 as a result of an upward revision to our Brent price forecast.
We have raised our forecast for Asian LNG hub prices following a record breaking month which was the result of freezing temperatures in key demand centres and a shortage of gas carriers due to congestion in the Panama Canal.
Our Gas Insights are available exclusively via our JBC Energy Online portal.
Each day our analysts will bring you JBC Energy’s expert take on the gas and LNG market developments that we believe will have a key impact on the market.
Through Gas Insights, clients can also access our weekly price outlooks for US, European and Asia benchmarks.